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Fallacy – Declaring The Future As Fact

Nato warning over Afghan mission: Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, NATO leader, said there were high stakes for international security.

A fallacy in logic is a failure in logic in which a person asserts as true, as factual, as proven logically and in direct experience what one asserts as true.

1. Predictive statements are never true because what they describe has not happened yet since ‘facts’ are still possibilities in the future.
2. A prediction about the future has not occurred yet, and may or may never happen as described.

The speaker or writer makes a predictive statement and asserts this predictive statement to be true. The predictive statement is going to happen for sure.

• What is the probability that any predictive statements will happen? And has this probability been tested in real-world surveys based on direct experience?

The politician makes his statements and asserts their factual realness without citing studies and percentages that such statements made by him, or other experts, are in fact true, therefore real and a basis for action in the experiential world.

Example – NATO And Jaap de Hoop Scheffer

Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, current head of NATO, predicts that NATO walking away from Afghanistan now would have a ‘devastating’ effect. The quote from BBC News:

‘Nato head Jaap de Hoop Scheffer has warned that walking away from the alliance’s mission in Afghanistan would have a “devastating” effect.’

Speaking in London, the Nato secretary-general said failure would give free run to al-Qaeda.

His comments come as Afghanistan suffers a spike in violence ahead of elections on 20 August.

More foreign troops have been killed in July than in any other month since the US-led invasion in 2001.

In a speech at a think tank, Mr de Hoop Scheffer said Nato allies could not afford to abandon their campaign.

“If we were to walk away, Afghanistan would fall to the Taliban, with devastating effect for the people there – women in particular,” he said.

‘Mr de Hoop Scheffer said Nato allies could not afford to abandon their campaign.’

‘”Pakistan would suffer the consequences, with all that that implies for international security,” he said.

“Central Asia would see extremism spread. Al-Qaeda would have a free run again, and their terrorist ambitions are global.”

He said Nato members had to realise that the mission was “essential” to their security.’

Logical Analysis

‘Afghanistan would fall to the Taliban’?

This is predicted to happen in the future for sure if NATO pulls out.

The practical ‘in reality’ thing to do would be for foreign powers to move out of Afghanistan and let the local people run their own country. This would be far less costly than the present situation of stability in the country due to billions of dollars poured into the country.

Mr de Hoop Scheffer said also that ‘Nato members had to realise that the mission was “essential” to their security.’

When looked at logically this is more speculation, not fact happening now or in the past.

Because security is jeopardized NATO countries should increase their military presence in Afghanistan. Extremism will spread.

Yes, any of these statements could happen as predicted, but so could contrary statements happen. The certainty factor may only be fifty percent, or unpredictable since this is predicting history on a large scale.

However, Mr de Hoop Scheffer’ asserts his statements will happen though they are only predictions about the future.

The NATO politician asserts as a head of government that governments should act as if his statements are true, are happening now as predicted.

This fallacy of asserting statements about the future are as true, as real as statements about the present based on what is happening now, is terribly faulty logic but used all the time in politics.

The truth is not in the assertion but on the objective and measured observation of direct experience.

Predictive statements about what will happen in the future are only speculative. They are not happening now. Their degree of certainty to happen, via cause and effect, are much less than statements about the past or even the present.

• The politician here asserts NATO countries should act on predictions and not just facts.

This is an enormous logical fallacy then which can create expensive and misguided results.

We don’t say acting the NATO politician’s way will result in negative and defeating results but that this is more likely to happen than if one bases present decisions on present results, and not on unproven predictions about the future.

The Everyday Example

A couple is seriously considering buying a house. The wife argues with her husband, ‘we had better buy now while house prices are lower than they have been in a considerable while. House prices are likely to start climbing soon and then we will be priced out of the house-buying market.

• Again we see the logical fallacy of making statements about the future and treating them as true, and therefore the basis for a present decision, to buy a house or not.

It’s a fallacy. No one knows what the housing market will do in the future. House prices may continue to fall. When do you enter the market?

Choosing in present reality, only buy a house you have the money for now and thus can afford.

What if one of you loses his-her job? What is your backup so you can keep the house? Don’t have a valid backup in case one of you loses his-her house? Then why are you even buying a house?

Buy your house only when the probability risks are low, making you both almost sure you will keep your jobs, or will take on a third job such as owning a small store.

Relationships Success Probabilities

This happens to almost everyone. I am seriously dating and enjoy dating a couple of different partners over this past year. My goal is to settle down into a permanent relationship. How do I make the choice, which one to choose?

Logically it works like this: the one you feel positive and creative with is likely to be the best choice for you for a permanent relationship.

An elderly, wise woman counselor gave this advice to a young woman client of hers. Make a date for each man she likes to spend the weekend together. This will give you experience of what each man is like in relation to yourself. You should then be able to make your choice.

You don’t fall into logical fallacies, such as all those predictive future statements made by ‘friends.’

You create ‘present direct experience’ and go from there in your decision-making.

However, even here be realistic and cautious. One friend of mine picked her new husband based on how she observed her suitors relating to her young son. The man she married was a super salesman and so consciously manipulated her by playing the positive father with the woman’s son. They married and the son and stepfather never got along.

I would say here then don’t just observe, also test possible companions by putting them in stress positions. Get your young son to stress out the men coming by by always interrupting, and see how each of the men handles this stress situation.

Summary

Logic is important, but you have to learn what it is and how to use it in your everyday life, don’t you? Know the common fallacies and educate yourself not to make them. Being ignorant of fallacious thinking can divert you down paths you never intended.

Check out your thinking and the other person’s thinking as they relate to you.

We used the Dutch politician example because these guys run countries and governments. Keeping troops in Afghanistan means young soldiers being killed, as well as civilians. Is it worth it? Is it worth losing a war to gain a single victory in battle?

Throw money at it. Politicians make their ploys to get the decision-making power over vast sums of money they could never accumulate themselves as individuals.

Why don’t people want to learn truth-telling and realistic truth-acting?

You’ve seen the examples here. Are you doing worse or better in your own decision-making in life?

—————-Original BBC news article——————

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8160291.stm

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